The onset of the pandemic ushered in a new and unwelcome era for international student programs. As weeks turned into months, lockdowns and travel restrictions dashed many hopes of a comeback.
But that gloomy prognosis may be turning a corner. The current climate suggests that a revival is not only possible—it’s probable.
That Was Then …
First, let’s look at where we started. Amid grim headlines and rising infection rates in 2020, academic institutions took steps to contain the chaos, implementing remote learning and social distancing. While administrators, School Heads, and college Presidents did their best to put on a brave public face, industry forecasters took a decidedly blunt tone with a difficult dose of reality: Prepare for low enrollment numbers and significant economic losses.
This was not a “chicken little” moment. A study examining the 2020–21 school year showed a 46% decline in new international student enrollments at American colleges and universities. In raw data numbers, approximately 900,000 international students were enrolled at U.S. schools in 2020–21, vs. well over 1 million in 2019–20.
The human toll of this downward shift bears noting. Not only did the pandemic derail the academic plans of young people seeking an American education—a goal that many families had been working toward for years—it also impacted the domestic student experience.
Living and learning with peers from other countries fosters the development of cultural competency, and those experiential life lessons cannot be fully imagined in the classroom. For the subset of students who weren’t able to experience it, it’s one that has been sorely missed.
Now we turn to the economic picture. As global economists struggled to assess the damage across all industries, the educational field was feeling its own financial aftershock—one that is likely to be felt for years to come.
Trade publications have estimated the higher education monetary loss resulting from the pandemic to be in the hundreds of billions. Such a mega deficit goes well beyond tuition and fees—unanticipated COVID related costs (testing, masks, barriers, etc.) and lost ancillary revenue streams both played significant roles.
Narrowing the focus to international programs, a study conducted at the end of 2020 listed the financial loss endured by U.S. colleges and universities to be at nearly $700 million—fallout from canceled study-abroad programs in the 2020 fall semester alone. The final number—yet to be determined—is likely to be even higher.
In the larger picture, college students from around the world contribute $28.4 billion to the U.S. economy and support over 300,000 jobs—positions that span from the academic institutions themselves to the health insurance industry. California and New York, and other states that have welcomed large international student populations, have been impacted particularly hard.
International programs in California typically generate nearly $5 billion and create over 51,000 jobs; in New York state, international student programs translate to just under $4 billion and nearly 40K jobs. While the fiscal damage to national and regional economies runs deep, various sources of relief money from the federal government have given hope to the financial futures of many schools and their surrounding communities.
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… This Is Now
With such a grim overall portrait emerging from 2020–21, is a rebound realistic? Leading researchers in the field of international study feel that a comeback is indeed within reach—and they cite new data to prove it.
Among participating institutions, a recent survey revealed that nearly 70% of colleges and universities saw higher international enrollments in the fall of 2021 as compared with the previous year. And following the trend of many public and private U.S. secondary schools, the survey also reported most international students—well over half—are learning in-person on American campuses.
Also of note, even as new student enrollment rates dropped in 2020–21, retention rates saw only a moderate slide of 3%. This is a testament to the strong level of commitment on behalf of both students and schools.
Many factors are contributing to a successful 2021–22 academic year and provide hope for a thriving 2022–23 as well:
- the widespread availability of vaccines;
- increased support among American federal agencies for international program growth;
- fewer restrictions about entering the U.S. and learning for other countries; and
- greater global access to visa application appointments and streamlined renewal processes.
And it is anticipated that these trends will continue into next fall.
In a time when political predictions are no longer reliable and an evolving pandemic has health experts updating recommendations at record speed, looking to any industry forecast can feel uneasy. Take heart that an American education is still the most sought-after learning experience globally.
What should your next steps be? Plan and execute your recruitment strategies with confidence. Prepare for a potential increase in enrollment and monitor internal financial considerations. Ultimately, continue to offer the high-quality programming that students from around the world expect from your school.
